BACK TO THE FIRST HOME PAGE OF THIS SITE
THE RUSSIANS ARE COMING
by William Thomas <willthomas@telus.net>
Analysis
Lifeboatnews.com
April 10, 2003
Tracking the Russian fleet since its quietly announced departure for the Indian Ocean last month, Lifeboat news has learned that a combined Black Sea and Pacific force comprising nine warships and additional support vessels is underway for the Indian Ocean to participate in joint sea exercises with India's navy. Russia's military minions maintain that combat naval maneuvering and live fire exercises will "play an important part" in "enhancing stability" in the Indian Ocean region. [Pravda Apr 5/03]
"It was not clear whether war games scenario would include a nuclear strike or counter-strike," Russian news reports teased. "Russia surprised many last month when it tested its Topol intercontinental ballistic missile, capable of striking the United States, when a high-ranking Indian delegation was visiting Moscow." [Dawn Apr 7/03]
BAITING A BEAR
Putin is perturbed. As head of a country with a large Islamic population, failing to prevent the Americans from recklessly launching a Christian crusade against Muslims was bad enough. Now, in U.S. retaliation for the Kremlin's outspoken anti-war stand, Russia can forget about its contract to develop the vast West Qurna oil field south of Basra.
Nyet to $600 billion worth of sweet, cheap-to-pump crude. And maybe bye-bye Russia. If a cowboy oil president uses his newly acquired oil kingdom to send petroleum prices tumbling below $18 a barrel, Russia's oil revenues ˆ and shaky economy ˆ will collapse. [The Observer]
"We're clearly going to have to cut our losses on anything we have there and anything we could have had," the unhappy head of Russian state-run oil firm Zarubezhneft told Vremya Novostei. "We were on to some huge deposits, irrigation projects, a whole lot of things apart from the oil sector," Nikolai Tokarev said, adding that it was "obvious" the main object of the U.S.-led war was to control Iraqi oil reserves. [AFP March 29 2003]
FRIGHTENING RETRIBUTION
Earlier this week, Washington's Kremlin-bashing acquired new emphasis when the Russian ambassador's entourage was hit as they fled Baghdad in conspicuous cars, heading for sanctuary in Syria. Ambassador Vladimir Titorenko dodged a bullet that passed between him and his driver. Three other Russian diplomats were shot, one seriously.
After being told in advance of the convoy's route, CENTCOM said sorry about that, we were shooting at somebody else. But convoy correspondent Minakov maintained, "I am 100 percent sure the Americans were the first to open fire." [AFP Apr. 6/03 ]
Actually, says GulfWatch head Jim Brown, "if you look carefully at the pictures, you can see white triangles in the background." White triangles, notes the head of this Gulf War veterans org, are typically used to set up fields of fire for an ambush. [interview]
"Shooting at the diplomats and journalists was not an accidental event," stated a translated Russian military intelligence report, "but rather a planned action of frightening and retribution." [Russian intel report Apr 7/03]
DANGEROUS WATERS
Russia says its fleet will not enter the Persian Gulf unless invited. But by the time it reaches the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq could have descended into anarchy and epidemics.
Even if the Russian battle group remains on its best behavior in the Indian Ocean, nuclear-armed Pakistan could go critical.
The emergence of a coalition of six radical Islamic parties, which won 53 seats in Pakistan's parliamentary elections last October, brings the Taliban closer to getting their hands on ready-to-launch nukes. On March 26, India test-fired a nuclear-capable Prithvi missile. Pakistan responded the same day by launching a similar Abdali missile.
Will the U.S. Navy be sent to patrol Pakistan? Last month, U.S. ambassador Nancy Powell was ejected from the country after charging that Pakistan's government "continued to be a platform for terrorism". Just days ago, as Pakistan's Taliban vowed to retake Afghanistan, the USA imposed sanctions on Pakistan's Kahuta Research Laboratories for allegedly helping North Korea to develop weapons of mass destruction. [Asia Times Apr 6/03]
WHAT WAR?
Russian defence sources stress that the Indo-Russian naval exercises "in proximity to the Persian Gulf are not linked to the U.S.-led war against Iraq." [Pravda Apr 5/03]
Last week a Russian navy news source disclosed that the vice admiral of the Black Sea Fleet has been "summoned to Moscow for instructions on the upcoming war games close to the Persian Gulf combat zone. The source said that vice-admiral Evgeniy Orlov 'will be meeting not only with the defense minister, but with President Putin himself.'"
[http://www.ng.ru/world/2003-04-02/1_flot.html]
COUNTERING THE U.S. PRESENCE
During the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, Admiral (ret.) J G Nadkarni noted, the Soviets had a strong fleet in the Indian Ocean to counter the U.S. presence". [http://www.rediff.com/news/2002/dec/18nad.htm]
A similar large-scale Russian naval exercise was held four years ago, when more than 30 vessels of Russia's Black Sea fleet contributed to Global Warming and Russia's deficit by racing around in circles firing their weapons. Kremlin officials declined to deny that this "unusual show of force" came in direct response to NATO air strikes on Yugoslavia ˆ which Moscow also deplored. [Reuters April 16, 1999]
According the Russian intelligence journal, CDI Russia Weekly: "The sensational news that Russia was resolved upon a 'show of strength' off the coast of Yugoslavia flew around many press agencies."
"A WELL KNOWN DIPLOMATIC TECHNIQUE"
Last January, Colonel General Valeriy Manilov said that Russian warships should be sent to the Persian Gulf as a last resort, "if the potential for political and diplomatic means of preventing a war against Iraq is exhausted." As the deputy chairman of the Federation Council's committee on defense and security observed, "The demonstration of military force is a well-known diplomatic technique."
But Russian Defense Minister Sergey Ivanov denied any sortie. "We do not have any plans to send naval ships or other military units to the Persian Gulf area," Ivanov told the Russian press agency. [Interfax Jan 15/03].
GERMAN AND FRENCH FLEETS TO JOIN THE GAMES?
Now the Russian task force will be ready for sea 5-6 days after receiving permission to pass through the Suez canal. "It is notable that the Baltic Fleet is also preparing to take part in the deployment to the Arabian Sea," noted a naval news source. "Moreover it is possible that the Baltic Fleet will act jointly with French and German Fleets." [http://www.ng.ru/world/2003-04-02/1_flot.html]
COMBAT TRAINING NOW UNDERWAY ACROSS RUSSIA
Preparation for deployment into the American-dominated conflict zone is being combined with military maneuvers across Russia meant to achieve "combat readiness".
This seagoing sword rattling is said to be much bigger than Russian military maneuvers usually held in March and April every year. This year, while Bush was busy attacking Iraq, from March 17 to 28 combat training took place in Russia's Strategic Missile Forces. The Topol test-firing was part of this drill.
Also on March 28 the biggest military maneuvers in 10 years began in the southern Russia. [http://www.ng.ru/world/2003-04-02/1_flot.html]
BOUND FOR IRAQ
A naval presence in the conflict zone will permit Putin to land "humanitarian-trained assault forces" in Iraq, and take part in the post-war reconstruction of the country. The Caspian Sea exercises currently being conducted with forces from the Ministry for Emergency Situations hope to speed "the delivery of humanitarian aid into combat zones".
"Such a combat zone for the participants of the training could well be Iraq," explained the report. "Russia could deliver humanitarian aid to Iraq via Iran," if called in as UN peacekeepers." [http://www.ng.ru/world/2003-04-02/1_flot.html]
While operating near or inside the "combat zone", both the U.S.S.R. and U.S. navy commanders will retain full authority to open fire in "self-defense" without referring to their superiors ashore.
JOINED AT THE NAVAL
Russia and India are joined at the naval. In 1965, after the U.S. rebuffed India's rearmament requirements, the U.S.S.R. stepped in with advanced death and destruction hardware. Over the next 40 years India's armed forces became the largest recipients of Soviet arms. Today more than 70% of the equipment in the Indian army, navy and air force is of Soviet origin. [Admiral (ret.) J G Nadkarni Dec.18/02]
The last Russian fleet deployment to the Indian Ocean came in January 2001, when the Pacific Fleet returned to familiar waters after a 10-year absence. Making port calls in Vietnam and India, the heavy anti-submarine warfare ships Admiral Vinogradov and Admiral Panteleyev were tasked with demonstrating Russian resolve to keep Southeast Asia's vital sea lanes out of the grip of someone else's submarines.
"We are just returning to the world ocean, where we first sailed out 40 years ago,'' admonished Admiral Kuroyedov. "It is time we stopped confining our interests to Russia's economic zone and turned our sights on the world ocean.'' [Hindu Times Dec. 29/00]
The accident-prone, chronically cash-short Russian Navy celebrated its 300th anniversary in 1996. Honed down to its most advanced warships, the navy's Sovremenny class destroyers armed with supersonic anti-ship missiles give U.S. Navy commanders nightmares. [ABCNEWS Jan. 26/01]
Sending the Sovremenny shipkillers south would send a signal of serious posturing. The Sovremenny warships did not participate in the last Russian deployment to the Indian Ocean in 2001. As flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, the helicopter-assault ship Moskva is likely to join the 7,600-ton Admiral Vinogradov as the combined task force returns to waters off the Indian subcontinent later this month. [http://www.ng.ru/world/2003-04-02/1_flot.html]
SHAKE UP
President Vladimir Putin has become increasingly stressed over Washington's warpath. As his fleet prepared to sail, Putin stated that the U.S.-led war against Iraq threatened to destabilize international relations to a low not seen since Moscow's standoff with Washington in the Cold War.
"As we predicted, the consequences of the war in Iraq are going outside the framework of a regional conflict," Putin puffed in televised remarks. "In essence, this threatens to shake the very basis of global stability and international rights." [AFP Mar 28/03]
"GLOBAL SECURITY IS BREAKING APART"
Russia watchers observe that "The unprecedented activity of the Russian military confirm the noticeable nervousness of Moscow regarding the situation in Iraq."
Since Bush attacked Iraq, Russia has halted ratification of an arms control agreement with the U.S.. Instead, on March 24, defence minister Ivanov visited the Nuclear Center at Sarov, "where he got acquainted with the latest developments in the area of nuclear weapons."
Commenting on the purpose of his visit, the defence head ominously declared that the new global security architecture is "breaking apart." Intimated Ivanov, "This again forces us to pay constant attention to the condition of our armed forces, so that under any contingencies, we can guarantee a reliable and total defense of Russia." [http://www.ng.ru/world/2003-04-02/1_flot.html]
That defense includes bomb shelters. The G2 Bulletin reports that the Russian government is tripling civil-defense outlays this year. [WorldNetDaily.com Feb. 15/03]
WHITE HOUSE CHARGES RUSSIAN MILITARY AID TO IRAQ
Last fall U.S. officials began warning the United Nations that Iraq had been buying GPS jammers from Russia since 1997. Smaller than microwave ovens, these devices block the satellite signals used by cruise missiles to update their flight paths. Troops and tank movements also depend on a Global Positioning System that can be blocked in a 100-mile radius by the jammers. [San Jose Mercury News Mar 15/03]
Washington accused a Russian firm of holding direct talks with Baghdad over the sale of sophisticated jamming equipment. Aviaconversiya denied selling the GPS jammers to Iraq. Moscow said it would treat as a "serious criminal offence" any discovery that a Russian firm had violated UN sanctions against Iraq.
[The Hindu Mar. 27/03]
On March 25, U.S. Air Force Major General Victor Renuart announced in Qatar that coalition warplanes had destroyed six jamming devices over the past two days that Iraq had "obtained from another nation." [AP Mar. 25/03]
Four days later, the U.S. Central Command halted Tomahawk cruise missile launches over Saudi Arabia after the kingdom complained that missiles fired from the Mediterranean and Red seas were falling on them. [AP Mar. 29/03]
"Russia has been acting in strict compliance with all existing sanctions regimes," sputtered Putin's aide. Instead, the Russian president publicly pondered Washington's sales of anthrax and other biological and chemical warfare cultures to Iraq. [People's Daily]
Then, in a surprise attack south of Najaf, Iraqi forces fired a Russian-made anti-tank missile into an M-1 Abrams tank, killing its four crew. A U.S. light-armored vehicle was also hit, injuring several marines and shocking U.S. commanders. [Sydney Morning Herald Mar. 27/03]
A CNN correspondent with the 7th Cavalry later quoted U.S. officers in the field saying that Iraqi irregulars fired wire-guided missiles from pickup trucks to knock out two Abrams tanks ˆ the American army's' most advanced battle hardware. [New York Times, Reuters, AFP Mar 27/03]
Even more threatening to a war plan predicated on airborne dominance, the Washington Post postulated that the Russian firm KBP Tula had supplied Igla shoulder-launched missiles to Baghdad. The Kremlin claimed the anti-aircraft missiles were destined for other countries in the region, including Syria.
On April 7, an American "Warthog" attack plane was downed over Iraq by a shoulder-fired missile. [CNN Apr 7/03]
THE DRAGON STIRS
While the world attends the mess in Mesopotamia, the G2 Bulletin observes that Beijing is currently conducting air-raid drills in regions closest to Taiwan. In a speech made after a Shanghai air-raid drill, Gen. Liang Guanglie said strengthening civil defense was necessary because of the "very serious" situation with Taiwan.
That "serious situation" is Taiwan's ongoing refusal to rejoin the mainland motherland.
Is China preparing to annex the renegade island nation while Bush is busy blasting Baghdad? Any Chinese grab for Taiwan would involve combat with the United States. Speaking of possible air attacks on the Chinese mainland, Mao Yushu, vice director of Shanghai's Civil Defense Department said, "Of course, we want to have done all preparations in this regard." [The Observer Apr 6/03]
"A COMPLETE BREAKDOWN OF TRUST AND CONFIDENCE"
In yet another crisis, while Washington considers a naval blockade of North Korea, that destitute communist state says it will regard any sanctions as an "act of war".
Pyongyang wants direct talks with Washington, something the Bush's Gang of Five has refused to consider. The White House says it has not ruled out a military "solution".
North Korea "fervently believes" it is next on America's list for pre-emptive strikes, says Maurice Strong. Just back from Pyongyang, the special adviser to UN Secretary General Kofi Annan warns that North Korea "takes George Bush's rhetoric in his 'axis of evil' speech as a very real threat to its national security."
"There is such a complete breakdown of trust and confidence between these two countries that they are now unable to read the intentions of the other," Strong states. "So there is real potential now for this to escalate into conflict."
RESTRAINING THE AMERICANS
Meanwhile - as the Russian Navy prepares to cross three seas in a "show of strength - unprecedented since Soviet times," Putin ponders his next move. "Previous deployments to waters bordering Central Asian hot spots were a bluff," declared CDI Russia Weekly. "Now it would not appear to be a bluff."
The heavy anti-submarine vessels Admiral Panteleyev and Marshal Shaposhnikov are reportedly already under steam in the Far East. In Sevastopol, the guided-missile cruiser Moskva, in company with the Pytlivyy and Smetlivyy patrol vessels, several support ships and a large landing ship with a company of naval infantry on board is preparing for sea.
Last February, CDI Russian Weekly figured that the command to weigh anchor would depend on "how fast the American-British war machine in the Persian Gulf picks up in the coming days. That the actions of Russia's sailors will, in actual fact, be dictated by these circumstances is not to be doubted."
After all said CDI, "the Black Sea Fleet responsible for patrolling the Mediterranean could practice searching for submarines ˆ or attacking an American aircraft carrier ˆ at home."
The Russian intelligence weekly further deduced that deployment of such "an exceptional scale would have been planned a year ahead, at a minimum." That planning never took place. Instead, a Russian fleet that officially wasn't going anywhere last January 15 is heading to the Indian Ocean following the U.S. invasion of Russia's longstanding ally.
Why send Russia's front-line warships "to the ends of the Earth"?
"Restraining the Americans," replied the Russian defense weekly. "Judging by the actions of our transatlantic partners, 'gunboat diplomacy' in the world has yet to be abolished." [CDI Russia Weekly Feb. 13/003]
# # #
William Thomas served in the US Navy before resigning his commission during the Vietnam War.
He is the author of All Fall Down: The Politics of Terror and Mass Persuasion - http://www3.bc.sympatico.ca/Willthomas/AFD/AFD.htm - and Bringing The War Home - http://www3.bc.sympatico.ca/Willthomas/warhome/warhome.htm
See also his award-winning documentary, “Eco War”
http://www3bc.sympatico.ca/Willthomas/orders/orders.htm
To view more work by William Thomas, go at http://www.willthomas.net